The Forum

[quote="PROWLER"]Statistically Improbable? I thought I would take a look at the figures that people have put forward in relation to the anvil. My limited experience is that (like Razor) I have broken everything and wasted countless ToEs, DTs and items. Of course, logically, “failure” becomes more likely with every upgrade and when it does come, it devastates/negates all the previous “success”. Statistically, an item will break 99% of the time as per this; 150skill; +0~+1: 67% +0~+2: 42.88% +0~+3: 26.1568% +0~+4: 15.170944% +0~+5: 8.3440192% +0~+6: 4.338889984% +0~+7: 2.12605609216% +0~+8: 0.9779858023936% (Taken from Flickthebean & Ravensoul) Therefore, statistically (rounding the 0.977% up to 1% in favour of success), you would need an average of; 100 x Weapon 500 x Tablet of Evil 300 x Swift Spirit To make a single +8 weapon. Of course, being an average, it is possible to reach that point in a shorter time (also it is possible to take much longer). Nevertheless, there do seem to be a good number of +8 weapons (Negamare) in game and for that to be the case there would have had to have been nothing less than a rather marvellous amount of farming. So, what I am getting at, is there a way to improve the odds and/or a different approach that yields better results? For instance, using “failers” (which, mathematically, I simply can’t make work on paper)? Are there any “do’s or don’ts” that the novice blacksmith should be aware of (that are grounded in science or game reality)? Are there other factors to take account of? Jac [/quote]

[quote="DEAMOND"]Personally i know FInito said at one point that he could see the average success rate of anvil i believe was like 85% and the issue was actually down to not enough drops rather than the anvil at fault. I have tested on a private server what it takes to get an item to +5 and that on averaged showed you needed 25 weapons to get a +5 (Even if its bad recoil) I can honestly say it has been MUCH harder to get a weapon to +5 with a nice recoil than it has to get a weapon to +8 This is all based on personal experience, I find that i have had much more success of upgrading past +5 than getting to +5 [/quote]

[quote="MTITUS_FARM"]Nearly everyone who has +8 nega weps or made +8 items revently will have used a 200 skill crafter as there are quite a few of those arounf atm. Its probably best to recalculate your numbers using thr 200 skill success rates[/quote]

[quote="SOMCHAI"][quote="DEAMOND"]I find that i have had much more success of upgrading past +5 than getting to +5 [/quote] Forgive my simple mindedness Deamond, to upgrade past +5 you would have of course have to reach +5 first? As in your upgrades past +5 can't be successful without obviously attaining +5. [/quote]

[quote="RAVENSOUL"]The myth of failures.... complete waste of time. If you believe you can force 1,2,3 fails in a row to mythical produce the 4 th attempt to be a success is complete bs. Each attempt you try is a new attempt in that the anvil doesn’t use any previous attempts as a marking for determining if you get a success or a fail. When that produce button is pressed there’s only 1 of 2 outcomes success or fail, it’s just for a lot of players they only see there attempts the majority of the time returned back with the heartbreaking word “ fail “ The only way to stack the odds in your favour is to have plenty of wharehouses full of items and upgrades and do a mass anvil blists and you might just get lucky and come away with something but don’t hold your breath.[/quote]

[quote="SALEM"]I'm not sure personally that these numbers have any bearing in reality. I've laid out a statistically sound method for empirically calculating the % success at the anvil in previous posts (search Sal3m and the word binomial will probably bring the post). If somebody wants to run multiple trials (min 30 trials per category, but the larger the sample the better) on a test server on 100 skill, 150 skill, 200 skill and then apply the method that I described, otherwise just record the attempts and successes and send me the results in a spreadsheet and I will calculate the true % success plus the uncertainty on the result for you. Edit: [quote=]The myth of failures.... complete waste of time.[/quote] This is also 100% true lol. Doing 'failers' is pointless - it is like thinking that flipping a coin 3 times in a row and getting three heads means that you're more likely to get tails on the next one. It simply isn't true; as long as the coin is fair it is 50:50 on each flip. That is assuming that the anvil is programmed to work like a 'fair' coin set at whatever % it is meant to be anyway...[/quote]

[quote="DEAMOND"][quote="SOMCHAI"][quote="DEAMOND"]I find that i have had much more success of upgrading past +5 than getting to +5 [/quote] Forgive my simple mindedness Deamond, to upgrade past +5 you would have of course have to reach +5 first? As in your upgrades past +5 can't be successful without obviously attaining +5. [/quote] Of course you are correct maybe i didn't explain myself sufficiently; Imo i have found it easier getting a weapon from +5 to +8 than getting a weapon from 0 to +5 [/quote]

[quote="SOMCHAI"]Ahh ^^[/quote]

[quote="DANOT"][quote="MTITUS_FARM"]Nearly everyone who has +8 nega weps or made +8 items revently will have used a 200 skill crafter as there are quite a few of those arounf atm. Its probably best to recalculate your numbers using thr 200 skill success rates[/quote] I thought you can upgrade with SS at 0 skill and therefore it works off 150 skill success rates? [/quote]

[quote="DEAMOND"][quote="DANOT"][quote="MTITUS_FARM"]Nearly everyone who has +8 nega weps or made +8 items revently will have used a 200 skill crafter as there are quite a few of those arounf atm. Its probably best to recalculate your numbers using thr 200 skill success rates[/quote] I thought you can upgrade with SS at 0 skill and therefore it works off 150 skill success rates? [/quote] Yes you are correct, you can use SS at anytime which uses 150skill success rate[/quote]

[quote="AENUS"]Say that 2 the 2 +7 bows +8 swrd full acc /eva +5 otm that I made using fails [/quote]

[quote="SUBXERO"]Tripple drops Leave the anvil More stuff for people who dont play much as well[/quote]

[quote="LUPISCUS"]you was advocating the 'ghost method' +1 of anvil change earlier in the week as ur preferred option.... there's been discussions from volunteer group about various possible options for anvil change..... ''leave the anvil'' as far as recent posts have been.. isn't one of those options You and openthedoor and possibly others are on a 'chinese mailing list'.. the rest of us would like a bit of an anvil boost...ty[/quote]

[quote="KAZOKU"][quote="LUPISCUS"]you was advocating the 'ghost method' +1 of anvil change earlier in the week as ur preferred option.... there's been discussions from volunteer group about various possible options for anvil change..... ''leave the anvil'' as far as recent posts have been.. isn't one of those options You and openthedoor and possibly others are on a 'chinese mailing list'.. the rest of us would like a bit of an anvil boost...ty[/quote] How I see the ghost method It will boost upgrades for what ppl have got current , as they can go for +5/8 with no risk and see how many success they have But then where back at square one where it's going to be a pain in the arse to improve on your gear So I'd persnoly like to see relevent drops improves [/quote]

[quote="LUPISCUS"]@kazoku i was replying to subs above post..saying '' leave the anvil'' after he had advocated the ghost method of being his favoured option for anvil change. Personally i think the ghost method.... nothing ever breaks is total nonsense... will break the economy... will be +8's everywhere..some good.. some not.. The +2 failproof..cept for a few toes is way better... but each to their own opinion... ''leave the anvil'' is not the way to go imo. Anyway i'm boring myself on the forums, nvm any1 else.. so im shushing.[/quote]