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Anvil Changes

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I'm a bit confused about the latest Anvil changes, the concept of this bag. Is the "bag" essentially removed from for each attempt? And so if you fail quite a lot, your chances of success increase? Or is the "bag" generated each time you attempt an upgrade? If so I can't see it being any different, it would surely still be RNG between A and B, right?.

Also, if it's the former, what happens if you've upgraded say a +4, then straight on to a +5, the "bag" contents would be irrelevant, unless it's per upgrade level or something.

Honestly I've no idea, just some general explanation and factual real world examples would be useful to help imagine how it actually makes any difference. Or if anyone knows more about how it works, please share!
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[quote="JML"]I'm a bit confused about the latest Anvil changes, the concept of this bag. Is the "bag" essentially removed from for each attempt? And so if you fail quite a lot, your chances of success increase? Or is the "bag" generated each time you attempt an upgrade? If so I can't see it being any different, it would surely still be RNG between A and B, right?. Also, if it's the former, what happens if you've upgraded say a +4, then straight on to a +5, the "bag" contents would be irrelevant, unless it's per upgrade level or something. Honestly I've no idea, just some general explanation and factual real world examples would be useful to help imagine how it actually makes any difference. Or if anyone knows more about how it works, please share![/quote]
think the 'bag' refers to...

say u have 65% success rate.. according to those tables..

put 100 balls into a bag.. 65 of them have success written on them.. other 35 have fail written on them..

same process for each + or fail i guess, with the %'s going down as per the table

so.. pick ur balls !
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[quote="LUP2SCUS"]think the 'bag' refers to... say u have 65% success rate.. according to those tables.. put 100 balls into a bag.. 65 of them have success written on them.. other 35 have fail written on them.. same process for each + or fail i guess, with the %'s going down as per the table so.. pick ur balls ![/quote]
Ye am confused ad like to see sommit like odds before change vs now for various upgrades
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[quote="DOWNFALL"]Ye am confused ad like to see sommit like odds before change vs now for various upgrades [/quote]
"LUP2SCUS"think the 'bag' refers to...

say u have 65% success rate.. according to those tables..

put 100 balls into a bag.. 65 of them have success written on them.. other 35 have fail written on them..

same process for each + or fail i guess

so.. pick ur balls !


Cheers mate, that's one of the possibilities I was wondering - But in that case, I'm not sure how it's any different to what we had before.

"DOWNFALL"Ye am confused ad like to see sommit like odds before change vs now for various upgrades


Agreed, that would also be useful.

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[quote="JML"][quote="LUP2SCUS"]think the 'bag' refers to... say u have 65% success rate.. according to those tables.. put 100 balls into a bag.. 65 of them have success written on them.. other 35 have fail written on them.. same process for each + or fail i guess so.. pick ur balls ![/quote] Cheers mate, that's one of the possibilities I was wondering - But in that case, I'm not sure how it's any different to what we had before. [quote="DOWNFALL"]Ye am confused ad like to see sommit like odds before change vs now for various upgrades [/quote] Agreed, that would also be useful. [/quote]
think there was a random element involved b4.. now you kno u have a fair chance of the odds being legit
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[quote="LUP2SCUS"]think there was a random element involved b4.. now you kno u have a fair chance of the odds being legit[/quote]
So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails.
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[quote="MAXIMO"]So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails. [/quote]
I will test it when I get home, see if I can see any patterns
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[quote="MAXIMO"]I will test it when I get home, see if I can see any patterns[/quote]
"MAXIMO"So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails.


Actually take this back, this looks all random now bye bye drugs and pills 🤣🤣🤣
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[quote="MAXIMO"][quote="MAXIMO"]So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails. [/quote] Actually take this back, this looks all random now bye bye drugs and pills 🤣🤣🤣 [/quote]
"MAXIMO"So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails.

I wouldn’t do anything like that as that wouldn’t be a good approach for this.

I’ve updated the news post so it is more clear. Yeah when I get some time I’ll show some graphs between old and new approach.
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[quote="FINITO"][quote="MAXIMO"]So let’s see, I think this refers to when u open the upgrade screen u get a set pattern of fails and success while the screen is still open, so if that don’t work for u then close screen and open it again and you get a different set of patterns success or fails. [/quote] I wouldn’t do anything like that as that wouldn’t be a good approach for this. I’ve updated the news post so it is more clear. Yeah when I get some time I’ll show some graphs between old and new approach.[/quote]
Thanks Fin. While I'm still unclear on how those changes yield the benefits you mention, I understand how it's implemented now, based on the news post change. Much appreciated.
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[quote="JML"]Thanks Fin. While I'm still unclear on how those changes yield the benefits you mention, I understand how it's implemented now, based on the news post change. Much appreciated.[/quote]
What was posted on news feed has been crossed out, something about removed.........

Is there still an upgrade system or back to the old pray and click?
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[quote="RAVENSOUL"]What was posted on news feed has been crossed out, something about removed......... Is there still an upgrade system or back to the old pray and click?[/quote]
back to the old...atm
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[quote="WOLF7STORE"]back to the old...atm[/quote]
"WOLF7STORE"back to the old...atm


If it’s back to pray then click and spin round and open your eyes........... there’s no point wasting time crafting to 250.

Had been motivated again to crafting, this news has just taking it away.

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[quote="RAVENSOUL"][quote="WOLF7STORE"]back to the old...atm[/quote] If it’s back to pray then click and spin round and open your eyes........... there’s no point wasting time crafting to 250. Had been motivated again to crafting, this news has just taking it away. [/quote]
still better % .. get ur ass back at forge

x
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[quote="WOLF7STORE"]still better % .. get ur ass back at forge x[/quote]
Just trying to help, I’m on my phone and havnt done any c# in a few months.


Are you counting the success values as ‘1’ or counting the rng number generated, finito? I wasn’t sure.

I’d maybe look at counting the last 5 or 10 upgrade by the crafter and if the failure and success is out of what you think is fair or reasonable then do something like -

E.g.

However you’re extracting the results, pass them to this kind of function along with the number they need to succeed the upgrade. I've made an assumption the value needed to succeed is out of 100, I have no idea.

--------
Int Check_HelpNeeded_forcrafter(int[] countedfails_from5, int ValNeededforSuccess)

//TODO - Iterate through the array and count the number of fails/success

//Followed by
(

If(countedfails_from5 >= 3)

{
ValNeededforsuccess -= 2; // easier to succeed on next upgrade
}
If(countedfails_from5 <= 2) // harder to succeed on next upgrade
{
valfNeededforsuccess += 2
}

Return ValNeededforsuccess

)

-------------
Then pass that returned value back to whatever your doing ready for the next upgrade and set it as the value required to succeed on that upgrade.

---
That might be an alternative - it would altar the number needed to succeed the upgrade based on the last 5 results and doesn’t need to take into account the crafters skill, just their history - so its relatively dynamic.

Ideally you’d filter out the guaranteed +1 and +2 results or even remove ghost upgrades… and do something a bit more comprehensive to the above.

Hope it helps.


[edit I didn’t include interpreting the array hah, you get the idea]
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[quote="FOXTRCK"]Just trying to help, I’m on my phone and havnt done any c# in a few months. Are you counting the success values as ‘1’ or counting the rng number generated, finito? I wasn’t sure. I’d maybe look at counting the last 5 or 10 upgrade by the crafter and if the failure and success is out of what you think is fair or reasonable then do something like - E.g. However you’re extracting the results, pass them to this kind of function along with the number they need to succeed the upgrade. I've made an assumption the value needed to succeed is out of 100, I have no idea. -------- Int Check_HelpNeeded_forcrafter(int[] countedfails_from5, int ValNeededforSuccess) //TODO - Iterate through the array and count the number of fails/success //Followed by ( If(countedfails_from5 >= 3) { ValNeededforsuccess -= 2; // easier to succeed on next upgrade } If(countedfails_from5 <= 2) // harder to succeed on next upgrade { valfNeededforsuccess += 2 } Return ValNeededforsuccess ) ------------- Then pass that returned value back to whatever your doing ready for the next upgrade and set it as the value required to succeed on that upgrade. --- That might be an alternative - it would altar the number needed to succeed the upgrade based on the last 5 results and doesn’t need to take into account the crafters skill, just their history - so its relatively dynamic. Ideally you’d filter out the guaranteed +1 and +2 results or even remove ghost upgrades… and do something a bit more comprehensive to the above. Hope it helps. [edit I didn’t include interpreting the array hah, you get the idea][/quote]

 

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