The Forum

[quote="MATTY"]So was chatting to a few players and there are mixed thoughts on if fails work. does the anvil act like a "new" anvil each upgrade. i.e lets say its 50% chance of working... Even if you use 3 fails and get 3 fails in a row...The next turn is still 50/50 though right? Or are the fails going off the theory that getting 4 fails in a row is less likely than a 50/50? The upgrade system baffles me haha, If someone could clear this up that would be great :) [/quote]

[quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"]There is no mathematical reason they should have any effect at all. However, without a truely random chaos engine, (which is an impossibility) patterns seem to form. Therefore.. they may have an effect even if each click rolls the odds given. All in, odds seem pretty accurate in large numbers if you're using them, or not.[/quote]

[quote="HURRICANE"]Fails don't make a difference. It would always be 50%[/quote]

[quote="JARAGOONDOO"]Some MMORPGs do have fail stacking systems (usually Korean games like soma), but they're usually obvious when they do. I've not seen any evidence that soma has such a system in place.[/quote]

[quote="OPENTHEDOOR"]It's like gambling, if you go into a casino and the roulette table has been black 5 times in a row, you would lay red because it can't keep rolling black forever can it. But the odds for black and red are still the same. I've used fails twice, first time I made some alright stuff, still broke a few things. The next time I succeeded with 21 upgrades in a row and made 2 +8 fail rings and a few DT and Tow upgrades +1 and +2. Since then I've never used them. [/quote]

[quote="ANGEL_STORE"]The theory is always 50% The perception comes from people that cant think logically and beleive that to have 3 rips in a row the chance would be 50% x 50% x 50% which is like 12.5% ... so they upgrade till they have 2 failures in a row and then hope the next upgrade will be 87.5% succes The is right but only when you havent done the 2 first upgrades yet. After every upgrade you start all over again at 50%. But we all know that when you have failures available you might aswell try it out lol, cant do any harm :)[/quote]

[quote="HEALZPLZ"]The whole theory of it being 50/50 isn't true and the chance of upgrading an item is actually affected by your crafting skill. Whether or not having higher crafting skill in on specific craft stat, say 200 weep skill increases the chance of upgrade in all three items types (wep, arm and acc) idk. [/quote]

[quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"] 100skill 150skill 200skill +1 56% 67% 68% +2 52% 64% 66% +3 48% 61% 64% +4 44% 58% 62% +5 40% 55% 60% +6 36% 52% 58% +7 32% 49% 56% +8 28% 46% 54% Rolling Odds (+0~+X) Edit due to questions: (Think like an Accumulator bet) [b]100skill[/b]; +0~+1: 56% +0~+2: 29.12% +0~+3: 13.9776% +0~+4: 6.150144% +0~+5: 2.4600576% +0~+6: 0.885629736% +0~+7: 0.28340151552% +0~+8: 0.0793524243456% [b]150skill[/b]; +0~+1: 67% +0~+2: 42.88% +0~+3: 26.1568% +0~+4: 15.170944% +0~+5: 8.3440192% +0~+6: 4.338889984% +0~+7: 2.12605609216% +0~+8: 0.9779858023936% [b]200skill[/b] +0~+1: 68% +0~+2: 44.88% +0~+3: 28.7232% +0~+4: 17.808384% +0~+5: 10.6850304% +0~+6: 6.197317632% +0~+7: 3.47049787392% +0~+8: 1.8740688519168% So as you can see from the above information. Before you press upgrade, pray to jesus, satan and the wizard of oz, spin round three times, throw a bowl of salt over your shoulder, spin three more times in reverse, sing god save the queen, then press the button and suceed 100% of the time. Easy. Edit: 0skill upgrades, such as ToW, DT, RDT use the 150skill numbers as its template.[/quote]

[quote="MATTY"][quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"] 100skill 150skill 200skill +1 56% 67% 68% +2 52% 64% 66% +3 48% 61% 64% +4 44% 58% 62% +5 40% 55% 60% +6 36% 52% 58% +7 32% 49% 56% +8 28% 46% 54% Rolling Odds (+0~+X) [b]100skill[/b]; +0~+1: 56% +0~+2: 29.12% +0~+3: 13.9776% +0~+4: 6.150144% +0~+5: 2.4600576% +0~+6: 0.885629736% +0~+7: 0.28340151552% +0~+8: 0.0793524243456% [b]150skill[/b]; +0~+1: 67% +0~+2: 42.88% +0~+3: 26.1568% +0~+4: 15.170944% +0~+5: 8.3440192% +0~+6: 4.338889984% +0~+7: 2.12605609216% +0~+8: 0.9779858023936% [b]200skill[/b] +0~+1: 68% +0~+2: 44.88% +0~+3: 28.7232% +0~+4: 17.808384% +0~+5: 10.6850304% +0~+6: 6.197317632% +0~+7: 3.47049787392% +0~+8: 1.8740688519168% So as you can see from the above information. Before you press upgrade, pray to jesus, satan and the wizard of oz, spin round three times, throw a bowl of salt over your shoulder, spin three more times in reverse, sing god save the queen, then press the button and suceed 100% of the time. Easy.[/quote] Nice !!!!!!! [/quote]

[quote="LUPISCUS"]waaaa look at those ''accumulator odds'' waaaaaaaa[/quote]

[quote="LUPISCUS"]top section under flickthebean looks healthier..... ''rolling odds'' section is a bit demoralising ;p[/quote]

[quote="LUPISCUS"] Dear GM's are these %ages of success and fail the same as used on this server? I aint done a gazillion upgrades .. but i feel the %ages here are a bit worse than listed above? Like @ 150 skill +2 and 3 are 60% + ?........ seems less than that[/quote]

[quote="DEIMOS"]I was always told different items have different success rates? (Only know dsoma) so a pod would have a different success rate to a keen eye etc Does anyone know if this is true ?[/quote]

[quote="MATTY"]I have also been told armour has better success than weps. And for some reason bows are harder to upgrade than other weps? I dont know the truth behind this but i have tried 15 bows to go past +3 and only 1 worked. [/quote]

[quote="MICKYC"]Are the 100, 150 and 200 skill step changes at these points or does it increase gradually between each of these? I have 130 skill, does this in fact mean I am no better off than at 100 skill?[/quote]