Author | Content | Date |
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MALAKAI |
Anyone know the rng % of getting 8 max reductions from Ss's in a row?
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#1 2023/01/17 11:18:33 |
SCRAP |
Quick bit of maths puts it roughly at 17%
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#2 2023/01/17 18:05:49 |
PHARMA |
u got a 10% chance of a 16% ss (range is 6-16% reduction)
so 1/10 for +1 The value of 10 raised to the 8th power is equal to 100,000,000. |
#3 2023/01/17 20:48:39 |
ROCKY1 |
So its 1 in 100,000,000 of 8 max rolls?
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#4 2023/01/17 21:01:43 |
RAVENSOUL |
If you don’t laugh you’ll cry at them odds 🤣
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#5 2023/01/17 21:03:00 |
PHARMA |
yea lolol and thats not even including the success rates either just plain odds of 8 max rolls
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#6 2023/01/17 21:17:39 |
RAVENSOUL |
Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉
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#7 2023/01/17 21:21:15 |
3D |
If you assume 80% chance on making each ss and 70% average upgrade success* chance (entirely arbitrary numbers) it's about 1/10,300.000.000 to have no fails at any point and perfect ss.
For context, the euromillions jackpot is about 1/140,000,000. *probably needs to be lower, Roch's numbers likely closer. Although I'm not sure the difference between 1 in 10 billion and 1 in 25 billion matters too much :]
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[quote="3D"]If you assume 80% chance on making each ss and 70% average upgrade success* chance (entirely arbitrary numbers) it's about 1/10,300.000.000 to have no fails at any point and perfect ss.
For context, the euromillions jackpot is about 1/140,000,000.
*probably needs to be lower, Roch's numbers likely closer. Although I'm not sure the difference between 1 in 10 billion and 1 in 25 billion matters too much :][/quote]
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#8 2023/01/17 21:52:39 |
ROCH |
"RAVENSOUL"Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉 I'll have a go at it. Using these success values: +1 - 100% +2 - 100% +3 - 61% +4 - 58% +5 - 55% +6 - 52% +7 - 49% +8 - 46% [Disclaimer: I don't know if the above values are correct as they were derived from esoma, but we will assume they are for the purpose of the exercise] Going from +2 to +8 without failure: (0.61)x(0.58)x(0.55)x(0.52)x(0.49)x(0.46) = 0.0228 = 2.28% or 1 in ≈44 attempts. So, getting a max roll on 8 SS, plus going from 2-8 in one attempt..... (0.0228)x(0.1^8) = 1 in 4,385,964,912 shot of nailing it And for the grand finale; throwing in the 8 successful swift spirits in a row (16.78% chance, approx 1 in 6 attempts), then getting to +8 with perfect rolls: (0.1678)x(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = 1 in 26,138,050,728 Strong odds I'm sure you'll agree XD
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[quote="ROCH"][quote="RAVENSOUL"]Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉[/quote]
I'll have a go at it.
Using these success values:
+1 - 100%
+2 - 100%
+3 - 61%
+4 - 58%
+5 - 55%
+6 - 52%
+7 - 49%
+8 - 46%
[Disclaimer: I don't know if the above values are correct as they were derived from esoma, but we will assume they are for the purpose of the exercise]
Going from +2 to +8 without failure:
(0.61)x(0.58)x(0.55)x(0.52)x(0.49)x(0.46) = 0.0228 = 2.28% or 1 in ≈44 attempts.
So, getting a max roll on 8 SS, plus going from 2-8 in one attempt.....
(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = [b]1 in 4,385,964,912[/b] shot of nailing it
And for the grand finale; throwing in the 8 successful swift spirits in a row (16.78% chance, approx 1 in 6 attempts), then getting to +8 with perfect rolls:
(0.1678)x(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = [b]1 in 26,138,050,728[/b]
Strong odds I'm sure you'll agree XD
[/quote]
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#9 2023/01/17 21:53:30 |
RAVENSOUL |
So we have more chance at winning the euro jackpot than getting a perfect 8 weapon in soma...............
Fuck soma where’s mystic meg these days 😉 Thank you Roch, very interesting odds 😉 |
#10 2023/01/17 21:54:52 |
MALAKAI |
I've had some very varied recoils across several Epics at +5 which sparked my interest. Thanks for the imput here
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#11 2023/01/18 01:32:28 |
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