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Ss reduction %

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Anyone know the rng % of getting 8 max reductions from Ss's in a row?
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[quote="MALAKAI"]Anyone know the rng % of getting 8 max reductions from Ss's in a row?[/quote]
Quick bit of maths puts it roughly at 17%
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[quote="SCRAP"]Quick bit of maths puts it roughly at 17% [/quote]
u got a 10% chance of a 16% ss (range is 6-16% reduction)
so
1/10 for +1

The value of 10 raised to the 8th power is equal to 100,000,000.
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[quote="PHARMA"]u got a 10% chance of a 16% ss (range is 6-16% reduction) so 1/10 for +1 The value of 10 raised to the 8th power is equal to 100,000,000.[/quote]
So its 1 in 100,000,000 of 8 max rolls?
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[quote="ROCKY1"]So its 1 in 100,000,000 of 8 max rolls?[/quote]
If you don’t laugh you’ll cry at them odds 🤣
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[quote="RAVENSOUL"]If you don’t laugh you’ll cry at them odds 🤣[/quote]
yea lolol and thats not even including the success rates either just plain odds of 8 max rolls
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[quote="PHARMA"]yea lolol and thats not even including the success rates either just plain odds of 8 max rolls[/quote]
Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉
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[quote="RAVENSOUL"]Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉[/quote]
If you assume 80% chance on making each ss and 70% average upgrade success* chance (entirely arbitrary numbers) it's about 1/10,300.000.000 to have no fails at any point and perfect ss.

For context, the euromillions jackpot is about 1/140,000,000.


*probably needs to be lower, Roch's numbers likely closer. Although I'm not sure the difference between 1 in 10 billion and 1 in 25 billion matters too much :]
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[quote="3D"]If you assume 80% chance on making each ss and 70% average upgrade success* chance (entirely arbitrary numbers) it's about 1/10,300.000.000 to have no fails at any point and perfect ss. For context, the euromillions jackpot is about 1/140,000,000. *probably needs to be lower, Roch's numbers likely closer. Although I'm not sure the difference between 1 in 10 billion and 1 in 25 billion matters too much :][/quote]
"RAVENSOUL"Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉


I'll have a go at it.

Using these success values:

+1 - 100%
+2 - 100%
+3 - 61%
+4 - 58%
+5 - 55%
+6 - 52%
+7 - 49%
+8 - 46%

[Disclaimer: I don't know if the above values are correct as they were derived from esoma, but we will assume they are for the purpose of the exercise]


Going from +2 to +8 without failure:

(0.61)x(0.58)x(0.55)x(0.52)x(0.49)x(0.46) = 0.0228 = 2.28% or 1 in ≈44 attempts.



So, getting a max roll on 8 SS, plus going from 2-8 in one attempt.....

(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = 1 in 4,385,964,912 shot of nailing it



And for the grand finale; throwing in the 8 successful swift spirits in a row (16.78% chance, approx 1 in 6 attempts), then getting to +8 with perfect rolls:

(0.1678)x(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = 1 in 26,138,050,728



Strong odds I'm sure you'll agree XD
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[quote="ROCH"][quote="RAVENSOUL"]Now do odds for actually making the 8 ss and the perfect 8 ss upgrades to a weapon 😉[/quote] I'll have a go at it. Using these success values: +1 - 100% +2 - 100% +3 - 61% +4 - 58% +5 - 55% +6 - 52% +7 - 49% +8 - 46% [Disclaimer: I don't know if the above values are correct as they were derived from esoma, but we will assume they are for the purpose of the exercise] Going from +2 to +8 without failure: (0.61)x(0.58)x(0.55)x(0.52)x(0.49)x(0.46) = 0.0228 = 2.28% or 1 in ≈44 attempts. So, getting a max roll on 8 SS, plus going from 2-8 in one attempt..... (0.0228)x(0.1^8) = [b]1 in 4,385,964,912[/b] shot of nailing it And for the grand finale; throwing in the 8 successful swift spirits in a row (16.78% chance, approx 1 in 6 attempts), then getting to +8 with perfect rolls: (0.1678)x(0.0228)x(0.1^8) = [b]1 in 26,138,050,728[/b] Strong odds I'm sure you'll agree XD [/quote]
So we have more chance at winning the euro jackpot than getting a perfect 8 weapon in soma...............

Fuck soma where’s mystic meg these days 😉

Thank you Roch, very interesting odds 😉
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[quote="RAVENSOUL"]So we have more chance at winning the euro jackpot than getting a perfect 8 weapon in soma............... Fuck soma where’s mystic meg these days 😉 Thank you Roch, very interesting odds 😉[/quote]
I've had some very varied recoils across several Epics at +5 which sparked my interest. Thanks for the imput here
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[quote="MALAKAI"]I've had some very varied recoils across several Epics at +5 which sparked my interest. Thanks for the imput here[/quote]

 

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