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EVOLVE |
The anvil has a script and a set of code to run by in its rulebook
It's built in the game to work In a certain way Its not just a free roam of numbers, can't be Completely different than to what real gambling is like unless it's rigged gambling |
#16 2018/06/18 07:11:47 |
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EVOLVE |
In before "post was to long didn't read"
I'm bored alright and just wanna know the truth But does the anvil speaketh the truth? No it can't even bloody talk all it does is just sit there like a plonker eating our upgrades, laughing at us...mocking us Succeed fail rinse and repeat #anvilknowsthetr00th
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[quote="EVOLVE"]In before "post was to long didn't read"
I'm bored alright and just wanna know the truth
But does the anvil speaketh the truth? No it can't even bloody talk all it does is just sit there like a plonker eating our upgrades, laughing at us...mocking us
Succeed fail rinse and repeat
#anvilknowsthetr00th
[/quote]
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#17 2018/06/18 07:27:18 |
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EVOLVE |
GL everyone
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#18 2018/06/18 07:48:42 |
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EVOLVE |
May the anvil be with you
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#19 2018/06/18 07:52:24 |
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LEONARDO |
Fails are rubbish. Just bang it in. Made my +8 apus without fails. Went from +5 to +7 in one go, then bought a large diamond made an ss and banged that in too and it went +8. Simples
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#20 2018/06/18 08:25:35 |
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SAL3M |
"EVOLVE"The anvil has a script and a set of code to run by in its rulebook Not really... It could easily be set to RNG which is presumably the simplest thing to do as opposed to having some tiered system where successes are dictated by previous fails.
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[quote="SAL3M"][quote="EVOLVE"]The anvil has a script and a set of code to run by in its rulebook
It's built in the game to work In a certain way
Its not just a free roam of numbers, can't be
Completely different than to what real gambling is like unless it's rigged gambling [/quote]
Not really... It could easily be set to RNG which is presumably the simplest thing to do as opposed to having some tiered system where successes are dictated by previous fails.[/quote]
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#21 2018/06/18 08:32:06 |
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FOXTRCK |
It must be tiered in some form to assert some success rate increase based on skill.
I think. |
#22 2018/06/18 09:22:46 |
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SAL3M |
"FOXTRCK"It must be tiered in some form to assert some success rate increase based on skill. It can still be biased to account for skill whilst 'forgetting' the results of previous trials. The odds don't have to be 50:50 for it to be a stochastic process - if you flip an unfair coin that comes out heads 60% of the time does that mean you can perfectly predict the outcome of 100 flips?
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[quote="SAL3M"][quote="FOXTRCK"]It must be tiered in some form to assert some success rate increase based on skill.
I think.[/quote]
It can still be biased to account for skill whilst 'forgetting' the results of previous trials.
The odds don't have to be 50:50 for it to be a stochastic process - if you flip an unfair coin that comes out heads 60% of the time does that mean you can perfectly predict the outcome of 100 flips?[/quote]
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#23 2018/06/18 10:22:56 |
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JIBBY |
"EVOLVE"In before "post was to long didn't read" If fails work for you then thats fine, but I have a feeling it's more a case of confirmation bias than anything else. The anvil is a roulette wheel, your crafting skill determines the bet your making. The higher your crafting skill, the more likely your bet is to come in. For example having 50 skill is like betting on 4 or 5 numbers on one spin, 150 skill is like betting on odds, evens or thirds, much higher chance to win, but it's still a RNG based on luck and nothing more. Anyone that played those pvp servers years ago, where you stood at anvil for hours upping armour and weapons to +8 knows how random and unforgiving the anvil is. The secret to the anvil is to just upgrade in bulk. Want a +5 stinger? Get 5 or 6 stingers, 30 toes and go at it.
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[quote="JIBBY"][quote="EVOLVE"]In before "post was to long didn't read"
I'm bored alright and just wanna know the truth
But does the anvil speaketh the truth? No it can't even bloody talk all it does is just sit there like a plonker eating our upgrades, laughing at us...mocking us
Succeed fail rinse and repeat
#anvilknowsthetr00th
[/quote]
If fails work for you then thats fine, but I have a feeling it's more a case of confirmation bias than anything else. The anvil is a roulette wheel, your crafting skill determines the bet your making. The higher your crafting skill, the more likely your bet is to come in. For example having 50 skill is like betting on 4 or 5 numbers on one spin, 150 skill is like betting on odds, evens or thirds, much higher chance to win, but it's still a RNG based on luck and nothing more.
Anyone that played those pvp servers years ago, where you stood at anvil for hours upping armour and weapons to +8 knows how random and unforgiving the anvil is.
The secret to the anvil is to just upgrade in bulk. Want a +5 stinger? Get 5 or 6 stingers, 30 toes and go at it.[/quote]
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#24 2018/06/18 11:23:44 |
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ARYA_ |
it always feels item based to me, if the starting att and recoil is within certain parameters then it works if not then rip
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#25 2018/06/18 15:49:10 |
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BUFFY |
Failed 3 Intense bows going for +1 in a row before in the same window.
Failed 5/6 Speed C Intense Apus bows all on the 1st TOE or DP. Never had a speed C work on the 1st upgrade yet. It's vile for me most of the time. †BTVS™ © ® |
#26 2018/06/18 16:03:21 |
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STRELKA |
Failers are an absolute meme. Don't believe in them.
Each click is a statistically independent action. If you think there is a pattern it's because your sample size is too small. Do each upgrade 10,000 times and you will see the success chances given are accurate. Getting 3 fails or 3 succeeds in a row means literally nothing except RNGesus was on your side for those 3 clicks.
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[quote="STRELKA"]Failers are an absolute meme. Don't believe in them.
Each click is a statistically independent action. If you think there is a pattern it's because your sample size is too small. Do each upgrade 10,000 times and you will see the success chances given are accurate. Getting 3 fails or 3 succeeds in a row means literally nothing except RNGesus was on your side for those 3 clicks. [/quote]
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#27 2018/06/18 22:21:30 |
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SOULASSASSIN |
RNG. Don't buy into the failure crap, you'll be wasting your time. :) but...each to their own, some folk can't be told.
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#28 2018/06/18 22:21:46 |
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FLICKTHEBEAN |
There are two ways to look at it.
Firstly; Fail technique is under the assumption you can skew the odds in your favour by waiting for a run of 'bad luck' on useless junk. Overall probability should be slightly increased if you had (example): a 50% chance for something to work, but had X fails in a row. Example - Sample size of 100, if you had approx a 40% success rate on each sample with a 50% chance to succeed, you can assume the playing field will be leveled out over large numbers to show an accurate depiction of 50% overall on a larger sample size, eventually you'll hit that equilibrium where the % chance and sample data coincide. So your "force fails" is just waiting for a run of bad luck that creates less successes than you should have gotten with the actual odds. Then attempting to take advantage of it. Bang it in and hope method, equally as effective, what if you were due a run of good luck and wasted it on your failer items. This method was my preferred style, it means if you're constantly upgrading a certain type of item, eventually, it will have to work and it should be somewhere near the 'real odds' it had to work by the time it does. Of course you can end up with better or worse results than expected, but overall if you did this for every one of your upgrades, over a large sample size, your odds would eventually hit an equilibrium of numbers and expected numbers. I did notice certain patterns while using the Anvil, however there was no way to expect them or see when they were going to start. I noticed patterns to combining, too, again no way to expect or change your odds at them. Patterns on a win/loss (only 2 result) formula will appear more readily because there are only 2 results. If there was a pass/stay/fail system, patterns would probably not appear to happen as much. RNG is RNG, if you can't handle failing, don't put it in (Iselix strategy, wait to buy it and save save save). Method will almost certainly not work for +8s or completed gear, as people wouldn't upgrade to those levels on things they'd sell. However you can buy some very usable gear when the anvil-lovers make something better than their old something. However, if you have the time to invest in replacements, or use a minimal loss strategy such as having a spare item and upgrading 1 thing at a time, e.g. spare 5% eva before upgrading past 5% eva on a piece, you can only gain. /Bean
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[quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"]There are two ways to look at it.
Firstly;
Fail technique is under the assumption you can skew the odds in your favour by waiting for a run of 'bad luck' on useless junk. Overall probability should be slightly increased if you had (example): a 50% chance for something to work, but had X fails in a row.
Example - Sample size of 100, if you had approx a 40% success rate on each sample with a 50% chance to succeed, you can assume the playing field will be leveled out over large numbers to show an accurate depiction of 50% overall on a larger sample size, eventually you'll hit that equilibrium where the % chance and sample data coincide. So your "force fails" is just waiting for a run of bad luck that creates less successes than you should have gotten with the actual odds. Then attempting to take advantage of it.
Bang it in and hope method, equally as effective, what if you were due a run of good luck and wasted it on your failer items.
This method was my preferred style, it means if you're constantly upgrading a certain type of item, eventually, it will have to work and it should be somewhere near the 'real odds' it had to work by the time it does. Of course you can end up with better or worse results than expected, but overall if you did this for every one of your upgrades, over a large sample size, your odds would eventually hit an equilibrium of numbers and expected numbers.
I did notice certain patterns while using the Anvil, however there was no way to expect them or see when they were going to start. I noticed patterns to combining, too, again no way to expect or change your odds at them.
Patterns on a win/loss (only 2 result) formula will appear more readily because there are only 2 results. If there was a pass/stay/fail system, patterns would probably not appear to happen as much.
RNG is RNG, if you can't handle failing, don't put it in (Iselix strategy, wait to buy it and save save save). Method will almost certainly not work for +8s or completed gear, as people wouldn't upgrade to those levels on things they'd sell. However you can buy some very usable gear when the anvil-lovers make something better than their old something.
However, if you have the time to invest in replacements, or use a minimal loss strategy such as having a spare item and upgrading 1 thing at a time, e.g. spare 5% eva before upgrading past 5% eva on a piece, you can only gain.
/Bean[/quote]
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#29 2018/06/19 05:23:30 |
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SOULASSASSIN |
"FLICKTHEBEAN"There are two ways to look at it. You're massively over complicating & overthinking a simple odds based system. It's literally the more skill you have (up until a certain point) the better odds. This still doesnt mean someone with significantly less skill than you over a short and even extended periods of time would suceed any less. Luck is luck, but the most logical thing to do would be to cap the skill for the best chance. It's really not dificult to understand.
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[quote="SOULASSASSIN"][quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"]There are two ways to look at it.
Firstly;
Fail technique is under the assumption you can skew the odds in your favour by waiting for a run of 'bad luck' on useless junk. Overall probability should be slightly increased if you had (example): a 50% chance for something to work, but had X fails in a row.
Example - Sample size of 100, if you had approx a 40% success rate on each sample with a 50% chance to succeed, you can assume the playing field will be leveled out over large numbers to show an accurate depiction of 50% overall on a larger sample size, eventually you'll hit that equilibrium where the % chance and sample data coincide. So your "force fails" is just waiting for a run of bad luck that creates less successes than you should have gotten with the actual odds. Then attempting to take advantage of it.
Bang it in and hope method, equally as effective, what if you were due a run of good luck and wasted it on your failer items.
This method was my preferred style, it means if you're constantly upgrading a certain type of item, eventually, it will have to work and it should be somewhere near the 'real odds' it had to work by the time it does. Of course you can end up with better or worse results than expected, but overall if you did this for every one of your upgrades, over a large sample size, your odds would eventually hit an equilibrium of numbers and expected numbers.
I did notice certain patterns while using the Anvil, however there was no way to expect them or see when they were going to start. I noticed patterns to combining, too, again no way to expect or change your odds at them.
Patterns on a win/loss (only 2 result) formula will appear more readily because there are only 2 results. If there was a pass/stay/fail system, patterns would probably not appear to happen as much.
RNG is RNG, if you can't handle failing, don't put it in (Iselix strategy, wait to buy it and save save save). Method will almost certainly not work for +8s or completed gear, as people wouldn't upgrade to those levels on things they'd sell. However you can buy some very usable gear when the anvil-lovers make something better than their old something.
However, if you have the time to invest in replacements, or use a minimal loss strategy such as having a spare item and upgrading 1 thing at a time, e.g. spare 5% eva before upgrading past 5% eva on a piece, you can only gain.
/Bean[/quote]
You're massively over complicating & overthinking a simple odds based system. It's literally the more skill you have (up until a certain point) the better odds. This still doesnt mean someone with significantly less skill than you over a short and even extended periods of time would suceed any less. Luck is luck, but the most logical thing to do would be to cap the skill for the best chance.
It's really not dificult to understand.[/quote]
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#30 2018/06/19 10:21:52 |
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