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The skill breakpoints were 100, 150, 200, which weren't even relevant for upgrades like CT/DT/ToW, etc, as they were on a 0 skill required system and not based on crafter skill. My basis was assuming no one is stupid enough to upgrade on a 100skill character, the huge majority will be using the 150 breakpoint as 200 was annoyingly long to get.

I haven't over complicated anything, I've explained the two theories people use and also stated RNG is RNG.

I agree sometimes fails can work against you like witnessing 2 +7 fails on rings at separate times and then ran out of fails and they all work then upping a main item and broke lol

Just sometimes you have a run of run of bad luck just recently seems constant

All feedback has been appreciated more examples of upgrades and all your luck wouldn't go amiss thank you everyone 👀

"WEARHOUSE"

I agree sometimes fails can work against you like witnessing 2 +7 fails on rings at separate times and then ran out of fails and they all work then upping a main item and broke lol

Just sometimes you have a run of run of bad luck just recently seems constant

All feedback has been appreciated more examples of upgrades and all your luck wouldn't go amiss thank you everyone 👀

Here's my playlist of 131 current videos i have upgraded using 150 skill

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLuLm5eAG6vdtvjkj9W0zARE6hRi0W03wV

"FLICKTHEBEAN"The skill breakpoints were 100, 150, 200, which weren't even relevant for upgrades like CT/DT/ToW, etc, as they were on a 0 skill required system and not based on crafter skill. My basis was assuming no one is stupid enough to upgrade on a 100skill character, the huge majority will be using the 150 breakpoint as 200 was annoyingly long to get.

I haven't over complicated anything, I've explained the two theories people use and also stated RNG is RNG.

But those 'theories' can be thrown out of the window and not even be mentioned, becasue they are a fallacy. Which was what I was getting at. Unnecessary, irrelevant information (overcomplicating simplicity as stated).

You've just said yourself, 0 skill to upgrade means 0 skill across the board to upgrade, always having the same % to roll in your favour. The latter you've explained again, 100, 150, 200 for odds increases; reinforcing the RNG is RNG.

Can't we just all agree, the anvil is a proper asshole.

Here's how to actually test it scientifically if somebody wants to go to the effort:

1. Take somebody of known crafting skill i.e. with known % probability of success (according to our understanding of the system - so say Lupi would have 80% success chance @ 200 skill I believe).

2. Pre-set a significance level e.g. 95% & the hypothesis that the anvil works on RNG.

3. Have the chosen person do 100 upgrades in a row and record the outcome (success v failure) of each.

4. Work out probability that they would get that number of successes based on their % chance as we understand it so e.g. for Lupi (0.8)^n * 0.2^(100-n) * 100Cn where n= number of successes and the last term is '100 choose n' or 'number of ways this can happen where the order that it happens in is irrelevant'.

5. If the probability that the number of successes that we get out is under 5% we reject the idea that it RNG.

6. Ideally rinse & repeat see if we get consistent results.

Could maybe do to make trials 1000, or even 10,000 since the more you do the less chance it should significantly deviate from the theoretical % chance you have but not sure anybody would bother to test to that extreme ;p

I'm sure a real statistician will have improvements on this method but it will definitely give less spurious results than the conjecture & bickering in this thread.

"JET_LI"Can't we just all agree, the anvil is a proper asshole.

+1👍

"MAVERICK"

"JET_LI"Can't we just all agree, the anvil is a proper asshole.

+1👍

failed going +2

"MONTEL"

"MAVERICK"

"JET_LI"Can't we just all agree, the anvil is a proper asshole.

+1👍

failed going +2

Great bants ;D

Anvil can do one for a while now.... this week its broke 2 intense otm going +1, 3 epics going +1 and another epic going +2

A str ring going +3 and a str neck going +2

Stupid thing....

"ALEXISONFIRE"Anvil can do one for a while now.... this week its broke 2 intense otm going +1, 3 epics going +1 and another epic going +2

A str ring going +3 and a str neck going +2

Stupid thing....

Not been a good week for me either =[ Ripped a total of around 12 KE and now i'm just a poor boy

"DEAMOND" i'm just a poor boy

You need no sympathy.

"GREATERIX"

"DEAMOND" i'm just a poor boy

You need no sympathy.

Everybody needs sympathy :(

"DEAMOND"

"GREATERIX"

"DEAMOND" i'm just a poor boy

You need no sympathy.

Everybody needs sympathy :(

Because I'm easy come, easy go
A little high, little low
Anyway the wind blows, doesn't really matter to me, to me



:)

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Caught in a landslide No escape from reality Open your eyes Look up to the skies and see I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy Because I'm easy come, easy go A little high, little low Anyway the wind blows, doesn't really matter to me, to me Mama, just killed a man Put a gun against his head Pulled my trigger, now he's dead Mama, life had just begun But now I've gone and thrown it all away Mama, ooo Didn't mean to make you cry If I'm not back again this time tomorrow Carry on, carry on, as if nothing really matters Too late, my time has come Sends shivers down my spine Body's aching all the time Goodbye everybody - I've got to go Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth Mama, ooo - (anyway the wind blows) I don't want to die I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all I see a little silhouetto of a man Scaramouch, scaramouch will you do the fandango Thunderbolt and lightning - very very frightening me Gallileo, Gallileo, Gallileo, Gallileo, Gallileo Figaro - magnifico But I'm just a poor boy and nobody loves me He's just a poor boy from a poor family Spare him his life from this monstrosity Easy come easy go - will you let me go Bismillah! No - we will not let you go - let him go Bismillah! We will not let you go - let him go Bismillah! We will not let you go - let me go Will not let you go - let me go (never) Never let you go - let me go Never let me go - ooo No, no, no, no, no, no, no - Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go Beelzebub has a devil put aside for me for me for me So you think you can stone me and spit in my eye So you think you can love me and leave me to die Oh baby - can't do this to me baby Just gotta get out - just gotta get right outta here Ooh yeah, ooh yeah Nothing really matters Anyone can see Nothing really matters - nothing really matters to me Anyway the wind blows...

cba fixin it but im right