The Forum

[quote="RAVENSOUL"]I’ve traveled the lands of soma for many years seeking to understand the myths of the anvil. I’ve heard many stories on how to stack the deck in a players favour but they all seem to fail at some point. The holy grail of a crafter is the +8 it’s everything to a crafter. As that old saying goes +8 or go home, well some believe there’s a method to playing the anvil, some believe it’s just down to luck........ Well is there actually any luck in a game (code wise) or just a placebo effect, That we just call “luck”? Maybe you lucky players can help the newer crafters to find that holy grail +8 [/quote]

[quote="TYRESE"]I’ve heard people use the force fail method, so in theory you’d try force 3 fails in a row then on the fourth attempt you’d do the item you actually want. Obviously that doesn’t always work. I’ve recently heard of another method, which I’m not 100% sure how it works. But you don’t do the upgrade from your own bag, you use the upgrade window. You keep track of when the fails are high and the success are low, then when it starts to turn you upgrade your item. Or something daft like that. I’ve seen videos of how people upgrade and there’s no other program running or cheating. It just seems people have found a good method of upgrading. Good luck getting them to share that knowledge though 🤣[/quote]

[quote="MIKELOWREY"]I feel like it’s genuinely completely random, but I always used to get at least a few upgrades ready and try to fail one of the less important one’s before I went for the big one. It seemed to be quite an effective method, but correlation doesn’t imply causation.[/quote]

[quote="TYRESE"]There’s players now who swear by using the method of the upgrade window. There’s even theories that if the weapon or armor is +4 and you’re using failed methods you need to fail 3 +4 items in a row for it to count towards the item you actually want to succeed. The best person to ask about how the anvil really works and that’s Knightrider, he’s made some quality kit recently. [/quote]

[quote="P3RF3CT"]:D[/quote]

[quote="TEMEROSO"]Making 8+ items is not difficult the hardest part is getting the items.... If I want to make a 8+ str ring using RDT and im not fussed about the item im using I can do it in 40/50 tablets. If i'm upgrading a valour items I don't have 40SS nor do I have the items to do it so a fail always seems harsh. its really down to luck people have their theories' but at the end of the day its math .... 1+ and 2+ are free. SS have a around 50% chance of succeeding craft skill does not count on this item. [/quote]

[quote="3D"]If it is ~50% and they are truly independent of each other then you're looking at making the +8 only 1 in 64 attempts on average. Even at 60% it would average 1 in ~22 attempts. I only have my own numbers to go on but I'm not sure either stacks with the actual success rate. Obviously the rate could be higher - if it started high, say 90% at +3 and succesive attempts lowered it, so the +8 was 50% - then that might match but I've wondered for a long time if the upgrade attempts are truly independent of each other. Would be nice to actually have a definitive answer but I guess a basic explanation of how the most important aspect of the game functions is too much to ask for. [/quote]

[quote="KNUCKLES"][quote="TEMEROSO"]Making 8+ items is not difficult the hardest part is getting the items.... If I want to make a 8+ str ring using RDT and im not fussed about the item im using I can do it in 40/50 tablets. If i'm upgrading a valour items I don't have 40SS nor do I have the items to do it so a fail always seems harsh. its really down to luck people have their theories' but at the end of the day its math .... 1+ and 2+ are free. SS have a around 50% chance of succeeding craft skill does not count on this item. [/quote] Fire some +8 str rings my way then [/quote]

[quote="PROWLER"][quote="3D"] …. making the +8 only 1 in 64 attempts on average. [/quote] Assuming that is correct, and it appears to be, the loss of materials is significantly higher. If we take the lowest possible loss of materials (for the 64 average) the item would break on each of the 63 first upgrade attempts meaning you would lose 63 upgrades and lose 63 the base items. You would need 69 mats and 64 base items for the 64th attempt to succeed (on average stated above). Taking the highest possible loss of materials (for the 64 average) the item would break on each of the sixth upgrades meaning you would lose (63x6) 378 upgrades and lose 63 base items. You would need 384 upgrade mats and 64 base items for the 64th attempt to succeed (on average stated above). Of course, the actual figure for losses would not likely be either the lowest or the highest. Bang in the middle of 1 – 5 (Lowest and Highest) we have the number “3”. So, we could reasonably calculate the average loss of materials for an average success rate of 64 is; 3x63=189 upgrades + 6 for the final success = 195 upgrades 63 of the base item plus one for the success = 64 of the base item (That’s all based on a 1 in 64 success rate ie. on average, you would succeed on the 64th attempt) When Champion stuff first came out, I saw +8 everywhere – one character kitted out with +8 everything. It only took one fail and the base item was dead and pretty much irreplaceable. That made 64 attempts totally impossible even if you happened to have 378 double tablets of anything. I accept you can get multiple champion pieces from different characters doing the quests and also accept it is easier now, but it wasn’t back then. I also accept you could go to +8 the first time but on an average of 64 attempts needed (above) it’s pretty dam unlikely that so many folk managed it the first time of asking. Quite obviously, there was (is) a way to overcome the infamous random number generator. If you are one of the people who know how to do this then I expect posts to obfuscate the issue (so you keep your advantage). In that case, please don’t post. Jac/Prowler [/quote]

[quote="WENCH"]One theory is a luck rating when u log on. I use combine to test this. One day failed 16/17 combines but a few days ago had 3 combines in a row work then on the same login I put 3 +4 parts in and all made +5 without using fails. Not +8s but this is what I judge it by.[/quote]

[quote="P3RF3CT"][item post=260052 index=0] This I made with 94fails. [item post=260052 index=1] 36fails. [item post=260052 index=2] 14fails. [item post=260052 index=3] 0 fails 5 success in row. Other items i got (check armory on me) i had ripped 20troll rings and the rest. So fail works for *ME* But I dont use then 3fail in row. I just got a excel(4years every upgrade all on MM done from 100armor craft skill till I got 200) with success/fails in rows and look at the patern. Sometimes you would not belive how well it works. Sometimes its shit nonesense.[/quote]

[quote="PROWLER"]Hiya MM .... hope you are keeping well. We know your methods .... ;) 8~) Jac[/quote]

[quote="RAVENSOUL"]Interesting read, thank you all that contributed appreciate it, thanks. I think 3D said it best..... Would be nice to actually have a definitive answer but I guess a basic explanation of how the most important aspect of the game functions is too much to ask for. I do remember ages back asking ISylver and Finito how the upgrade system actually worked, but never got any info. As most know depending on what build you create a character most characters will end up if you utilise the majority of your characters experience in the best way, roughly most characters will end up with similar stats (a balanced stat character) and the only thing that will help is gear. This brings everyone to the anvil..... Is everyone on the same playing field, or do some have an advantage? That was mostly my thought in making this thread to share the knowledge etc and in return hopefully soma would thrive once again. Upgrades are simple enough to know..... We have the +5 upgrades and +8 upgrades. The upgrades that you can stack up to +5 (toes, evasion, accuracy etc) require a crafter to add them with a minimum 100 craft skill in any of the 3 metal crafts ( armour, accessories, weapon) you also get a slight increase supposedly at 150 craft skill and at 200 craft skill. The upgrades that can stack up to +8 ( all tabs single and double, ss etc everyone can add these to an item because these are automatically assigned with the 150 crafters skill. Attempting an upgrade.... Most players will have tried this at some point, so we all know when you click that produce button there is only 2 outcomes that can happen.... 1 - success (which we all like to see happen) 2 - failed ( nothing to say here ) So as I have always said it’s a flip of a coin, 50/50.... but is it really????? There are times when you can have 3, 4, 5, or 6, 7 and 8 success’s in a row but you can also have it fail the same amount in a row. So really it fecks up the whole 50/50 chance, the flip of a coin theory out the pissing window. I hold my hands up with the fail 2 times in a row and do your real upgrade placebo myth from back in esoma. That was down to 3 of us and a few too many drinks on the night on my part with Sando and Flesh but we did have more success doing this so stuck with it and made some decent gear or what seemed decent back then. I have done upgrades all different ways, fails, no fails, back ups, and no matter what it always ends the same. In that the moment you start to think that you have worked it out or to give yourself a slight edge over the anvil, the anvil laughs and throws your handbook out the window and your back to square one. Breaking shit all over again.[/quote]

[quote="SB99"]There is no % chance. If the table says you have 60% chance at success, what it really means is that - 100 attempts at anvil = 60 success / 40 fails. If you upgrade 95 times with 55 success / 40 fails, next 5 are likely success. Obviously this kind of method would take maybe an hour or two. Tbh I'd rather just throw the item in 1st time n hope for the best. Also to note I wouldn't believe anything anyone says on this game as its fkin rare to see someone hunting and then out of nowhere they got +17 items. Real money and botting is the real key to the anvil, don't get it fkin twisted! #ghostupgradepls[/quote]

[quote="JESUSCHRISTS"][quote="P3RF3CT"][item post=260164 index=0] This I made with 94fails. [item post=260164 index=1] 36fails. [item post=260164 index=2] 14fails. [item post=260164 index=3] 0 fails 5 success in row. Other items i got (check armory on me) i had ripped 20troll rings and the rest. So fail works for *ME* But I dont use then 3fail in row. I just got a excel(4years every upgrade all on MM done from 100armor craft skill till I got 200) with success/fails in rows and look at the patern. Sometimes you would not belive how well it works. Sometimes its shit nonesense.[/quote] When you're botting all day these items come easy.... Dont they perfect! [/quote]