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Chance of Drop

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Drop rates have been debated since early eSoma but I was wondering if anyone knows for certain exactly how they work?

It appears that there is a “chance” of each mob dropping an item (from the drop file) and that this “chance” reduces dependent upon the perceived value.

However, it appears that there are specific parameters/conditions that apply to drops and I wonder if the “chance” is the consolidated effect (rather than a true random percentage chance).

For instance;

You can consistently kill mobs for sustained periods with no drops (LBs, Cyclone, Hoarde, Palus, BLGs as examples) and when you are the only person at that spawn the drops appear at fairly regular intervals. (sometimes in singles and sometimes two might drop within a kill or two). When those drops occur they will be the “lesser” drops with the “better” drops appearing (reasonably consistently) at defined longer intervals. If there were a true random percentage chance, I would not expect to see a pattern like that.

For instance, with an invented mob and invented drop file;

Invented Mob = Dragon

<Dragon Drop File>
Large Liver 2%
Frog 2%
Dragon Essence 2%
Egg 1%
RDT 0.1%

It seems that (using the above as an example), every 50 kills (almost exactly) either a Large Liver, frog or essence will drop. Every 100 kills (that is every other 50 kills) an egg will drop INSTEAD with the same being true of the RDT after 1000 kills.

If multiple people are at the same spawn it appears that the drop rate is based on the number of mobs killed, not the number of mobs YOU kill (which is logical because a database doesn’t discriminate unless it is programmed to).

I also think that there are other factors/conditions that MUST be met before a specifically higher drop can occur (as a hypothetical for instance, a maximum of ONE Nahwans Blood per Soma day)

What caused me to think this is the vast number of times I have been both alone at spawns and with other players at spawns. When I am alone the drops are consistent (every X kills). When I am with others I see drops much more frequently but hardly ever get any and I think the reason is this;

(using the above example);

If you are alone, you will get a drop after 50 kills.

If others are there, a drop will occur after 50 kills.

If each player is killing at the same rate, the chance of you getting a drop remains the same.

If other players are killing faster THEY have a greater chance of more drops at your expense.

By that I mean this; some players tank mobs for either guild members or they alt character which hit them with frost wind which kills a bundle all at once. In either case, the 50th kill is up to 8 times more likely to drop in front of the tanker (and not you minding your own business elsewhere).

There is a mammoth difference between a drop chance being purely random (at a fixed percentage rate) than there is with a set of conditions/parameters that “equate” to a percentage chance.

Does anyone have any facts that help in the understanding ?

Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"]Drop rates have been debated since early eSoma but I was wondering if anyone knows for certain exactly how they work? It appears that there is a “chance” of each mob dropping an item (from the drop file) and that this “chance” reduces dependent upon the perceived value. However, it appears that there are specific parameters/conditions that apply to drops and I wonder if the “chance” is the consolidated effect (rather than a true random percentage chance). For instance; You can consistently kill mobs for sustained periods with no drops (LBs, Cyclone, Hoarde, Palus, BLGs as examples) and when you are the only person at that spawn the drops appear at fairly regular intervals. (sometimes in singles and sometimes two might drop within a kill or two). When those drops occur they will be the “lesser” drops with the “better” drops appearing (reasonably consistently) at defined longer intervals. If there were a true random percentage chance, I would not expect to see a pattern like that. For instance, with an invented mob and invented drop file; Invented Mob = Dragon <Dragon Drop File> Large Liver 2% Frog 2% Dragon Essence 2% Egg 1% RDT 0.1% It seems that (using the above as an example), every 50 kills (almost exactly) either a Large Liver, frog or essence will drop. Every 100 kills (that is every other 50 kills) an egg will drop INSTEAD with the same being true of the RDT after 1000 kills. If multiple people are at the same spawn it appears that the drop rate is based on the number of mobs killed, not the number of mobs YOU kill (which is logical because a database doesn’t discriminate unless it is programmed to). I also think that there are other factors/conditions that MUST be met before a specifically higher drop can occur (as a hypothetical for instance, a maximum of ONE Nahwans Blood per Soma day) What caused me to think this is the vast number of times I have been both alone at spawns and with other players at spawns. When I am alone the drops are consistent (every X kills). When I am with others I see drops much more frequently but hardly ever get any and I think the reason is this; (using the above example); If you are alone, you will get a drop after 50 kills. If others are there, a drop will occur after 50 kills. If each player is killing at the same rate, the chance of you getting a drop remains the same. If other players are killing faster THEY have a greater chance of more drops at your expense. By that I mean this; some players tank mobs for either guild members or they alt character which hit them with frost wind which kills a bundle all at once. In either case, the 50th kill is up to 8 times more likely to drop in front of the tanker (and not you minding your own business elsewhere). There is a mammoth difference between a drop chance being purely random (at a fixed percentage rate) than there is with a set of conditions/parameters that “equate” to a percentage chance. Does anyone have any facts that help in the understanding ? Jac [/quote]
I think its a percentage of each mob killed and not per 100 mobs as you say. for example
0.2% frog
0.4% ll
4% weapon and lowers for each tag
80% barr (rondom 0 - 1000)
And that for evry mob you kill
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[quote="KEKKET"]I think its a percentage of each mob killed and not per 100 mobs as you say. for example 0.2% frog 0.4% ll 4% weapon and lowers for each tag 80% barr (rondom 0 - 1000) And that for evry mob you kill [/quote]
Rng that's all
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[quote="INTHEFACE"]Rng that's all[/quote]
Each drop is random. They used to sit in the way of eachother as you said but now it's a certain % per drop item, regardless of anything else.

If you are really lucky you could get every drop from the list of a mob, in one kill.
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[quote="TANTRA"]Each drop is random. They used to sit in the way of eachother as you said but now it's a certain % per drop item, regardless of anything else. If you are really lucky you could get every drop from the list of a mob, in one kill.[/quote]
X/32768 is how it used to be done on soma files. No idea how it works on these files.
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[quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"]X/32768 is how it used to be done on soma files. No idea how it works on these files.[/quote]
Sorry, I don't think I have been very clear in my question 8(

What I mean to ask is;

(Using Flicks X/32768)

Does X = the number of times a mob is killed
or
Does X = the number of times you kill a mob?


Additionally, is the "chance percent" solely and purely a "% chance" or is the "% chance" a consolidated answer to the varying factors ?


Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"]Sorry, I don't think I have been very clear in my question 8( What I mean to ask is; (Using Flicks X/32768) Does X = the number of times a mob is killed or Does X = the number of times you kill a mob? Additionally, is the "chance percent" solely and purely a "% chance" or is the "% chance" a consolidated answer to the varying factors ? Jac[/quote]
Afraid I can't answer specifics but I'm pretty sure it doesn't count mobs killed per character, just global kills of the mob, e.g spawns are usually 1-9 monsters per spawn location (mixed up together sometimes) but once those 9 have been killed X times, they are likely to, but not guaranteed to have dropped X items.
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[quote="FLICKTHEBEAN"]Afraid I can't answer specifics but I'm pretty sure it doesn't count mobs killed per character, just global kills of the mob, e.g spawns are usually 1-9 monsters per spawn location (mixed up together sometimes) but once those 9 have been killed X times, they are likely to, but not guaranteed to have dropped X items. [/quote]
It's an old game. It's not very complicated at all. There's no hidden rules about it.

From the thread about Shanis drop list in suggestions:
"ISYLVER"By removing those items it doesn't mean the other drops will drop more. Just making sure you're aware of that.


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[quote="TANTRA"]It's an old game. It's not very complicated at all. There's no hidden rules about it. From the thread about Shanis drop list in suggestions: [quote="ISYLVER"]By removing those items it doesn't mean the other drops will drop more. Just making sure you're aware of that.[/quote] [/quote]
The way I've always looked at it is as a big wheel with numbers from 1 - 9999, each kill the wheel turns once to the next number. so from 1 - 9999 every other number will be leather and every 5th number will be wood so every time it hits 100 it drops a armour every 500 it drops a frog every 1000 it drops a upgrade and once it hits 9999 it starts again.

Back on esoma days on Dsoma when killing egf for months you could tell what was going to be dropping next.

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[quote="BASIL"]The way I've always looked at it is as a big wheel with numbers from 1 - 9999, each kill the wheel turns once to the next number. so from 1 - 9999 every other number will be leather and every 5th number will be wood so every time it hits 100 it drops a armour every 500 it drops a frog every 1000 it drops a upgrade and once it hits 9999 it starts again. Back on esoma days on Dsoma when killing egf for months you could tell what was going to be dropping next. [/quote]
Drops were and always have been random.
There is no sequence whereby you could tell what would drop next.

It is just as much an untruth as thinking force failures on upgrades increase your subsequent upgrade chances.
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[quote="S0RCERER"]Drops were and always have been random. There is no sequence whereby you could tell what would drop next. It is just as much an untruth as thinking force failures on upgrades increase your subsequent upgrade chances.[/quote]
I still think I am failing to ask the question correctly - my fault, sorry 8(

Assuming Flick, Tantra, Basil and Sorcerer are all correct (I think everyone is) there is still a distinction (between the four interpretations) ...

If you look at Sorcerer's interpretation, it would not be possible (statistically) to kill mobs without getting a drop (except in very extra-ordinary circumstances).

If you look at Basil's interpretation then, if other people are at the spawn, it is possible to kill mobs infinitum without a drop. In fact, the more people there are there and the faster they kill them, your chance would diminish. (ie. some one frostwinding 8 mobs at once would kill 8x more than you would which means they are 8 times more likely to get the drop in Basil's interpretation).

There ARE some conditions that we know for certain exist attached to drops and here are two;

1) Mobs may never drop two of the same item
2) Mobs cannot drop more than a defined number of items no matter what their chance (ie. DWs in D3 cannot drop more than 3 items in any one kill (I am not including barr))

I expect there will be other conditions but I am hoping to understand the basic premise on which a drop occurs first before building on that ...

8)

Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"]I still think I am failing to ask the question correctly - my fault, sorry 8( Assuming Flick, Tantra, Basil and Sorcerer are all correct (I think everyone is) there is still a distinction (between the four interpretations) ... If you look at Sorcerer's interpretation, it would not be possible (statistically) to kill mobs without getting a drop (except in very extra-ordinary circumstances). If you look at Basil's interpretation then, if other people are at the spawn, it is possible to kill mobs infinitum without a drop. In fact, the more people there are there and the faster they kill them, your chance would diminish. (ie. some one frostwinding 8 mobs at once would kill 8x more than you would which means they are 8 times more likely to get the drop in Basil's interpretation). There ARE some conditions that we know for certain exist attached to drops and here are two; 1) Mobs may never drop two of the same item 2) Mobs cannot drop more than a defined number of items no matter what their chance (ie. DWs in D3 cannot drop more than 3 items in any one kill (I am not including barr)) I expect there will be other conditions but I am hoping to understand the basic premise on which a drop occurs first before building on that ... 8) Jac[/quote]
This is the best way I can put it say a mob had a 1% chance to drop a item you would expect to get 1 item with in 100 mobs that's just not true, you could kill 1000 mobs and still no drop then on the other hand you could kill 1000 mobs and get 1000 items i think the better question to ask would be , is the rng which determines what items drop is personal to your char or influence by other people farming the same mobs I.e push up the % of what item drops
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[quote="INTHEFACE"]This is the best way I can put it say a mob had a 1% chance to drop a item you would expect to get 1 item with in 100 mobs that's just not true, you could kill 1000 mobs and still no drop then on the other hand you could kill 1000 mobs and get 1000 items i think the better question to ask would be , is the rng which determines what items drop is personal to your char or influence by other people farming the same mobs I.e push up the % of what item drops [/quote]
Do you really need to know this bad lol you kill something it either drops or doesn't i tend to find this approach alot more enjoyable than this mobs chance of dropping this item x% i have killed x amount therefore ect ect xD
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[quote="JUGGERNAUT"]Do you really need to know this bad lol you kill something it either drops or doesn't i tend to find this approach alot more enjoyable than this mobs chance of dropping this item x% i have killed x amount therefore ect ect xD[/quote]
Just trying to understand it Juggernaut

8)
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[quote="JACKELPUP"]Just trying to understand it Juggernaut 8)[/quote]
"JUGGERNAUT"Do you really need to know this bad lol you kill something it either drops or doesn't i tend to find this approach alot more enjoyable than this mobs chance of dropping this item x% i have killed x amount therefore ect ect xD


+1


it drops. or it dont. You cant change it, Let it be a mystery rather than a science. Real life already bogged down with too many numbers. Let it happen, and stop counting ;p
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[quote="ACVX"][quote="JUGGERNAUT"]Do you really need to know this bad lol you kill something it either drops or doesn't i tend to find this approach alot more enjoyable than this mobs chance of dropping this item x% i have killed x amount therefore ect ect xD[/quote] +1 it drops. or it dont. You cant change it, Let it be a mystery rather than a science. Real life already bogged down with too many numbers. Let it happen, and stop counting ;p[/quote]

 

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