| Author | Content | Date |
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JACKELPUP |
"ACVX" Let it happen, and stop counting ;p that's part of the problem, it isn't happening and I am trying to figure out why not. 4 weeks at the nightmares (1400+ kills) and no frogs at all 1000+ Prism kills and no frogs at all I could go on but I really am just trying to understand 8( Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"][quote="ACVX"] Let it happen, and stop counting ;p[/quote]
that's part of the problem, it isn't happening and I am trying to figure out why not.
4 weeks at the nightmares (1400+ kills) and no frogs at all
1000+ Prism kills and no frogs at all
I could go on but I really am just trying to understand
8(
Jac
[/quote]
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#16 2015/09/29 16:42:26 |
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JACKELPUP |
Just for a bit of fun, here are some Devil Warrior (D3) results;
1500 Devil Warriors Killed Healing Pots Dropped 275 (18.33%) Energiser Pots Dropped 327 (21.8%) Wooden Board Dropped 397 (26.47%) Meat Tree Dropped 385 (25.67%) Red Iron Bar Dropped 296 (19.73%) Amber Dropped 77 (5.13%) Large Liver Dropped 2 (0.13%) Some Notes; During Kills 1-211 I was sharing the spawn area with another player (Crimson) The Large Livers dropped at Soma Time 2, Kills number 389 and 396 almost consecutively. There were no other Soma characters present after kill 211 and no further large livers dropped despite more than an additional 1000 kills. The two almost consecutive drops are consistent with other mobs (like Cyclone, Hoarde, Apus, Palus, BLG etc.). I realise this doesn’t mean anything … just something to think about (or not). My wife has told me to get a life. 8) Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"]Just for a bit of fun, here are some Devil Warrior (D3) results;
1500 Devil Warriors Killed
Healing Pots Dropped 275 (18.33%)
Energiser Pots Dropped 327 (21.8%)
Wooden Board Dropped 397 (26.47%)
Meat Tree Dropped 385 (25.67%)
Red Iron Bar Dropped 296 (19.73%)
Amber Dropped 77 (5.13%)
Large Liver Dropped 2 (0.13%)
Some Notes;
During Kills 1-211 I was sharing the spawn area with another player (Crimson)
The Large Livers dropped at Soma Time 2, Kills number 389 and 396 almost consecutively. There were no other Soma characters present after kill 211 and no further large livers dropped despite more than an additional 1000 kills.
The two almost consecutive drops are consistent with other mobs (like Cyclone, Hoarde, Apus, Palus, BLG etc.).
I realise this doesn’t mean anything … just something to think about (or not).
My wife has told me to get a life.
8)
Jac
[/quote]
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#17 2015/09/29 17:02:37 |
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NOTMAT |
A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop, it has nothing to do with the amount killed or how many people are hunting there. It's complete luck and whether an item drops is decided as the mob dies.
In theory you could be at wraiths and get 2 Spirit Powders in a row, it's just a stupidly low chance mathematically.
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[quote="NOTMAT"]A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop, it has nothing to do with the amount killed or how many people are hunting there. It's complete luck and whether an item drops is decided as the mob dies.
In theory you could be at wraiths and get 2 Spirit Powders in a row, it's just a stupidly low chance mathematically.[/quote]
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#18 2015/09/29 17:14:33 |
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SLICENMAGE |
headaches but i do believe in fairies
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#19 2015/09/29 18:32:40 |
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JACKELPUP |
"NOTMAT"A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop. I think that is exactly right. I think it has an implication though .... All things being equal (and I think they are in this case) the database doesn't discriminate against who is killing the mob(s). So, on average, something with a 1/2000 chance of a drop will drop every 2000th kill (regardless of who is killing it). The implication is this; if you are with other people and they are, for instance, killing 8 mobs for your every 1; you would be 8 times less likely to get any drops that appear "randomly". (simple maths as the "drop" is more likely to land in the 8 kill window rather than your 1 kill window) It also explains why someone doesn't get (any) drops over prolonged periods with the high end mobs when other people are there, especially people who kill faster or who are in a group. 8) Jac
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[quote="JACKELPUP"][quote="NOTMAT"]A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop.[/quote]
I think that is exactly right.
I think it has an implication though ....
All things being equal (and I think they are in this case) the database doesn't discriminate against who is killing the mob(s). So, on average, something with a 1/2000 chance of a drop will drop every 2000th kill (regardless of who is killing it).
The implication is this; if you are with other people and they are, for instance, killing 8 mobs for your every 1; you would be 8 times less likely to get any drops that appear "randomly". (simple maths as the "drop" is more likely to land in the 8 kill window rather than your 1 kill window)
It also explains why someone doesn't get (any) drops over prolonged periods with the high end mobs when other people are there, especially people who kill faster or who are in a group.
8)
Jac
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#20 2015/09/29 18:39:47 |
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NOTMAT |
"JACKELPUP""NOTMAT"A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop. That isn't how maths/odds works.
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[quote="NOTMAT"][quote="JACKELPUP"][quote="NOTMAT"]A couple of months into the server I pm'd dan about this and he basically said that each item has a % chance to drop.[/quote]
All things being equal (and I think they are in this case) the database doesn't discriminate against who is killing the mob(s). So, on average, something with a 1/2000 chance of a drop will drop every 2000th kill (regardless of who is killing it).
[/quote]
That isn't how maths/odds works.[/quote]
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#21 2015/09/29 18:46:20 |
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JACKELPUP |
I did say "on average" ......
8) Jac |
#22 2015/09/29 19:04:13 |
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ACVX |
"JACKELPUP"Just for a bit of fun, here are some Devil Warrior (D3) results; tbh.. u seem nice guy. But, thats serious ocd counting ..listen to ur wife ;p
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[quote="ACVX"][quote="JACKELPUP"]Just for a bit of fun, here are some Devil Warrior (D3) results;
1500 Devil Warriors Killed
Healing Pots Dropped 275 (18.33%)
Energiser Pots Dropped 327 (21.8%)
Wooden Board Dropped 397 (26.47%)
Meat Tree Dropped 385 (25.67%)
Red Iron Bar Dropped 296 (19.73%)
Amber Dropped 77 (5.13%)
Large Liver Dropped 2 (0.13%)
Some Notes;
During Kills 1-211 I was sharing the spawn area with another player (Crimson)
The Large Livers dropped at Soma Time 2, Kills number 389 and 396 almost consecutively. There were no other Soma characters present after kill 211 and no further large livers dropped despite more than an additional 1000 kills.
The two almost consecutive drops are consistent with other mobs (like Cyclone, Hoarde, Apus, Palus, BLG etc.).
I realise this doesn’t mean anything … just something to think about (or not).
My wife has told me to get a life.
8)
Jac
[/quote]
tbh.. u seem nice guy. But, thats serious ocd counting ..listen to ur wife ;p[/quote]
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#23 2015/09/29 19:59:10 |
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JACKELPUP |
"ACVX" ..listen to ur wife ;p Yes, I know .... 8( Jac |
#24 2015/09/29 21:25:45 |
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CASSELL |
Jacky, just for some perspective I had 12 frogs dropped from 3000 prismatic shadows. I killed the first 500ish in Abias then moved to VoD because I didnt have any drops.
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#25 2015/10/01 07:18:55 |
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SAM |
i understand the concept but you need help with this, i guess you have graphs to go with your findings? :)
when i played hsoma a long time ago i remember getting like 3 frogs in a row from prisms in abias then nothing for about 2 days. Then 4-5 within 10minutes and nothing again. it does appear a bit odd. :)
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[quote="SAM"]i understand the concept but you need help with this, i guess you have graphs to go with your findings? :)
when i played hsoma a long time ago i remember getting like 3 frogs in a row from prisms in abias then nothing for about 2 days. Then 4-5 within 10minutes and nothing again. it does appear a bit odd. :)[/quote]
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#26 2015/10/01 11:33:48 |
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BASIL |
Therefor my circle theory ;p
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#27 2015/10/01 12:13:43 |
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