The Forum

[quote="LUPISCUS"]if all these above rates were increased by 10% as suggested by sub.. i don't think... it would drastically or suddenly make loads of +5-8 weps around in the game..just make things a little easier. tho im not a great mathematician.. it sounds about right for a lil boost. ) something thats pretty damn difficult to do.. like atm,, if made 10% easier.. is still pretty damned hard to do.. [/quote]

[quote="COFFEESILK"]Im not asking to make loads of +8 weaps. i just want to know that at 200 skill i can get at least one out ten to +3[/quote]

[quote="WOLF10"][quote="COFFEESILK"]Im not asking to make loads of +8 weaps. i just want to know that at 200 skill i can get at least one out ten to +3[/quote] That's a fair comment. Although yes, there's plenty of +5+ weps around..they don't come easy..at all. With 200 skill its easily possible to do 20-30 weps and not even make 1 to +3 nvm higher. All these tables of % success may be correct in theory.. but it doesn't feel anywhere near as high as what it looks.[/quote]

[quote="SOMAWIZARD"]Thanks for confirming this fin, it is much appreciated now there is no doubt in anyone's mind what the chances are.[/quote]

[quote="AENUS"]I made 4 +5 weps in 24 hrs cause I had drops with no drops u make no items on a 150 skill crafter[/quote]

[quote="AENUS"]For all those that dont beileve in failers ask anyone in valiant what my success rate is like on upgrades [/quote]

[quote="WHOOSH"]Correlation doesn’t imply causation numb nut Aenus. [:[/quote]

[quote="SABREWOLF"][quote="AENUS"]For all those that dont beileve in failers ask anyone in valiant what my success rate is like on upgrades [/quote] A few months ago I failed 5 failers in a row, so I put in my 5% eva top.. failed, then put in my 4% eva helm.. failed, then put in 4% eva pads.. failed. Put in a +4HH.. failed. So no failers are a complete myth. [/quote]

[quote="SAL3M"][quote="SABREWOLF"][quote="AENUS"]For all those that dont beileve in failers ask anyone in valiant what my success rate is like on upgrades [/quote] A few months ago I failed 5 failers in a row, so I put in my 5% eva top.. failed, then put in my 4% eva helm.. failed, then put in 4% eva pads.. failed. Put in a +4HH.. failed. So no failers are a complete myth. [/quote] There is [b]no[/b] anecdotal argument that can be had about 'failers'. It is simply mathematically wrong and a kind of version of gamblers fallacy, probably the most famous statistical misaprehension in history. [b]IF[/b] the anvil is a simple RNG with a set success rate (it is possible that it could be otherwise thus negating what I'm saying) then each trial is an independent trial and it is statistical nonsense to use 'failers'. I hear arguments like 'Well it is unlikely you will get struck by lightning twice in a row' etc but that isn't an analogous calculation. You can calculate the probability of getting 4 heads in a row out of 5 flips of a fair coin using (n, k) (n choose k, i.e. the binomial expansion) and the probability of 4 heads in a row will be quite low if it is indeed a fair coin but that has nothing to do with each individual trial which is simply a set probability based on the fact the coin has two sides and will land on one or the other (assuming a hypothetical totally fair coin).[/quote]

[quote="AENUS"]I'm not saying that a failure has any affect on weather or not the next upgrade will fail or succeed but that with each consecutive failure the probability that the next will fail goes down I've had 5 fails in a row 2 times 4 times in a row 5 times 3 times in a row 13 times 2 times in a row 57 times and I dont keep track of single failures[/quote]

[quote="BEACHSHORTS"][quote="AENUS"]I'm not saying that a failure has any affect on weather or not the next upgrade will fail or succeed but that with each consecutive failure the probability that the next will fail goes down I've had 5 fails in a row 2 times 4 times in a row 5 times 3 times in a row 13 times 2 times in a row 57 times and I dont keep track of single failures[/quote] The probability you will get more and more fails in a row goes down as does the probability you will get more and more heads in a row when flipping a fair coin but you can’t game the anvil by using ‘failers’ any more than you can game a fair coin by flipping it an extra time and discounting that result between flips that you consider legitimate. Each flip is 0.5 chance of success - the calculation of cumulative flips is a totally different calculation. All of this is assuming the RNG of the anvil works like a fair coin anyway. Also just recently the stats given by Raven/Fin show that % success is also ratcheted based on current +x which makes the ‘failer’ theory even more dubious as you have a different chance of success when you’re failing your +1 to when you’re successfully doing your +2. [/quote]

[quote="AENUS"]Idk my data clearly shows that ur less likely to get 4 straight fails then 2 straight so clearly it works[/quote]

[quote="BEACHSHORTS"]We are speaking at cross purposes here - do whatever makes you happy but if you actually want to understand how to properly interpret your data then go and get a textbook for s1, a module from A level mathematics, possibly need to go to s2, not sure been so long; otherwise just google the binomial expansion/pascals triangle & probability and then read about it online.[/quote]

[quote="RAVENSOUL"]Before you press upgrade, pray to jesus, satan and the wizard of oz, spin round three times, throw a bowl of salt over your shoulder, spin three more times in reverse, sing god save the queen, then press the button and suceed 100% of the time. Easy.[/quote]